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A future of work

Economic and environmental issues

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What if extreme global warming leads to significant increases in workers’ occupational risks and vulnerability?

With 2023 the warmest year on record, we are reminded that climate change will increasingly be recognised as a health, safety and human rights issue. Climate change’s impacts range from natural disasters to disruption of critical services and increased seasonal heat or cold. There is an enormous body of evidence to demonstrate the impacts of climate change on communities and workers.

Research published in 2021 suggested that 100,000 heat-related deaths per year were caused by climate change. Another study suggested almost three quarters of the global working-age population are already living in locations where background climate conditions are associated with about a hundred hours of heat-associated lost work per person each year.

Climate adaptation will likely fall, in part, under the remit of the OSH profession. Workplaces will need to become resilient both to sudden shocks – such as extreme weather events – and to more gradual changes over time, such as hotter and drier summer weather and greater exposure to tropical diseases.

What if there is another global pandemic more harmful to health than COVID-19?

Infectious diseases are on the rise globally, due to increased international travel, population growth, environmental degradation and related issues such as sanitation. Global migration, transport and logistics patterns, especially growth in air travel, aid the dispersion of diseases.

Concern around infectious disease has an impact on workplace design (for example, reduction in contact points and increased hygiene) and working patterns such as remote and hybrid working.

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, data indicates rising levels of long-term sickness and absence from the workplace. Figures from the US indicate that the number of workers missing work due to illness in January 2022 had more than doubled from the previous year, from 3.7 million to 7.8 million.

This includes the rise of ‘long COVID’, a condition relatively poorly understood but with long-term impact. One study found that 1.1m people in the USA were out of work at any one time due to long COVID, not just through long-term absence but also due to decreased working hours relating to fatigue.

What if gig work overtakes secure employment as the most common source of primary income?

The gig economy means short-term contracts or one-off jobs, ranging from delivery work to freelance tasks or ‘gigs’ on a specific project. Over 10 per cent of workers in the US rely on gig work for their primary income. These jobs can be easy to access via digital platforms and suit many people’s lifestyle preferences. However, they often come without the provisions of traditional employment, such as paid sick leave.

Young people and migrants are more likely to rely on gig work. For example, over 70 per cent of workers in the app-based delivery sector in Argentina and Chile are migrant workers. These groups have fewer social protections and work in conditions that are less regulated, less managed or potentially unsafe.

Gig workers don’t have traditional workplaces, so it’s difficult to engage with them and ensure that OSH legislation can address OSH issues. Some organisations are responding to this by monitoring workers’ health remotely. However, monitoring, surveillance and algorithmic management present threats to worker wellbeing, data privacy, working conditions and worker autonomy.

63% of workers in England either already have multiple roles as a part of a portfolio career or plan to do so in the future

Read the full report

‘Towards a safe and healthy future of work’ offers a more in-depth exploration of how the world of work is set to evolve.

Download the full report (PDF)